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The apparent refusal of the army to use force against other soldiers raises doubts about the control exercised by the president still Rajoelina the military helped him take power in March 2009.
In the morning the government had asked civilians living near the military camp where the rebels to leave the area, while schools in the area, located on the outskirts of the capital, were evacuated.
General Andre Ndriarijoana, chief of the army, then went to the barracks adjacent to the international airport of Antananarivo-Itivo for talks with the mutineers officers, but no action has been decided to remove them.
The rebels had announced Wednesday the dissolution of all institutions and their replacement by a military council.
"Confrontation is not the solution. Only dialogue and negotiations to resolve the situation," said Ndriarijoana at a press conference.
THE TIME FACTOR
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Analysts estimate that more blockage persists, the more Rajoelina lose credibility and the greater the risk of street protests against the government.
"They lose face.
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They know
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it is very dangerous," said Lydie Boka, responsible Strategico, group analysis of economic and political risks based in Lille (France).
Prime Minister
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Camille Vital said then that the government had never intended to storm the barracks and that the measures taken in the morning was to prevent civilians and children to witness the negotiations between military.
He added that the problem was being resolved.
President
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Marc Ravalomanana Rajoelina overthrown in March 2009 with the support of the staff. But the military, divided by the overthrow of Ravalomanana and his departure into exile, would not survive a showdown that would turn to violence, according to observers.
Some feel that the deposed president, or any of its predecessors hostile Rajoelina could still blow on the embers.
"It may yet end in bloodshed, but the battle will be limited anyway," said Philippe de Pontet, Africa director of the think tank Eurasia Group.
"If former leaders overthrown - and generally close to the business - like President Marc Ravalomanana and Didier Ratsiraka its predecessor - to reach an uprising more importantly, there is an increased risk of instability in the short term, but we assess this risk to 25%, "he adds.
The day of
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the mutiny, the Malagasy were voting in a referendum on constitutional reform aimed at lowering to 35 the minimum age to become president, which would allow Rajoelina to extend his term until the elections scheduled on May 4 and to stand again.
The former mayor of Antananarivo, aged 36, had taken power in huge demonstrations against his predecessor. It is in turn suffered a setback in popularity is the result of broken promises.
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